The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2025 Atlantic hurricane outlook on May 22, which predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season.
The outlook forecasts 13 to 19 named storms of which six to 10 could become hurricanes, with three to five major hurricanes expected. Check out the latest blog post by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), “Trump Administration Slashes NOAA, FEMA, Making 2025 Hurricane Season More Dangerous,” for the organization’s take on the upcoming hurricane season.
This hurricane season will begin during an unrelating assault on lifesaving safeguards and federal agencies by the Trump administration. This includes cutting staff and funds for vital agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and advancing a draft budget that doubles down on funding cuts to NOAA, as well as disaster preparedness and recovery.
The administration has denied requests for disaster assistance from California, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin and delayed requests from more than half a dozen states for months. Meanwhile, other states’ requests for disaster assistance have been partially denied. The administration’s actions will leave people across the United States increasingly at risk especially during the climate-fueled Danger Season—the time roughly from May through October when hurricanes and other disasters worsened by climate change are at their peak and increasingly likely to collide with one another.
Below is a statement by Dr. Marc Alessi, a UCS science fellow.
“Hundreds of people died, and millions of people were displaced because of hurricanes last year. Despite the worsening climate and extreme weather impacts being felt across the country, the Trump administration has proceeded with its inhumane agenda that will leave people on the frontlines of disasters at greater risk.
“In 2024, NOAA was able to offer some of its most accurate weather forecasting to date for active hurricanes. For both Hurricanes Milton and Helene, rapid intensification was predicted well in advance, and the first advisory for Hurricane Milton predicted the hurricane would make landfall in Florida within 12 miles of where it ultimately made landfall. These incredibly accurate forecasts were made possible by a fully funded NOAA. Research laboratories develop and perfect the hurricane prediction models that the hurricane experts at the National Hurricane Center then use to make these forecasts. If we don’t continue fully funding these research laboratories, the Center and the rest of NOAA, we could see a degradation in forecasting capabilities.
“While federal agencies may no longer be able to use the phrase ‘climate change’ with President Trump in charge, that ridiculous edict doesn’t change the scientific realities. The more the United States continues to burn fossil fuels that drive global warming, the more it is contributing to the risk of intense and dangerous Atlantic hurricanes. In addition to reining in heat-trapping emissions, it’s imperative that local, state and federal policymakers and emergency planners prioritize investments to get U.S. homes, businesses and infrastructure climate-ready and be prepared to ensure a quick and just recovery should disaster strike.”
Dr. Alessi and other UCS experts are available to discuss hurricane-related topics in English, Spanish and Portuguese, including:
• How climate change is impacting hurricane activity and increasing sea levels.
• How cuts to NOAA are undermining accurate weather forecasts.
• Hurricanes worsening existing racial, socioeconomic and public health inequities.
• Risks a specific storm may pose to electric grid infrastructure and nuclear power plants.
• The role fossil fuel companies have played in exacerbating climate change events.
• How pre-disaster investments can help limit future economic damages and prevent loss of life.
• The role of FEMA and HUD in disaster response and recovery.
• Impact of hurricanes on the insurance market and the implications for at-risk communities.
Additional Resources and Analyses:
• The UCS “Danger Season” online map, which tracks the places at risk of extreme heat, wildfires, storms, poor air quality and flooding during the 2025 Danger Season.
• UCS blogposts from this and previous Danger Seasons.
• The UCS report “A Toxic Relationship: Extreme Coastal Flooding and Superfund Sites.”
• The UCS report “Lights Out? Storm Surge, Blackouts, and How Clean Energy Can Help.”
• Peer-reviewed research by UCS that shows how much global sea surface temperatures, sea level rise and ocean acidification can be traced to emissions from the products of ExxonMobil and other major fossil fuel companies.
• A fact sheet on the science connecting extreme weather events, like hurricanes, to climate change.