WASHINGTON (May 13, 2026)—The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) is tracking extreme weather during what the organization calls “Danger Season,” the period between May and October when North America is hit by heat, drought, wildfires and flooding increasingly amplified by climate change. It is colliding with an affordability crisis and the Trump administration’s anti-science actions that escalate climate risks and leave the nation less prepared for coping with extreme weather.
This year’s Danger Season follows three years of the hottest global temperatures in recorded history and dozens of billion-dollar weather and climate disasters across the United States as climate change boosts the frequency and severity of extreme weather.
The potential for a super El Niño developing later this year could push global temperatures even higher.
"What happens when El Niño interacts with fossil fuel-caused climate change—the long-term increase in global temperatures that is already turbocharging extreme weather events around the world? Unfortunately, the two of them together might be bad news for our climate system,” writes UCS Science Fellow Marc Alessi.
The Trump administration’s relentless assault on the nation's scientific resources is also bad news for our safety.
“With deep science cuts across federal agencies and the attack on bedrock climate policies, the administration is attempting to make climate change disappear from federal policy—even as the harms mount in people’s lives,” Erika Spanger, UCS director of Strategic Climate Analytics, writes in a new post about Danger Season 2026.
Safeguards we depend on have been disappearing with the administration’s firing of scientists, budget and staff cuts at agencies like the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center, and undermining of the Federal Emergency Management Agency that helps people with disaster preparedness and response.
Despite the scientific consensus that we need urgent action to reduce fossil fuel emissions to slow the pace of climate change, the White House is doubling down on the production and use of oil, gas and coal.
“The Trump administration is making both the climate crisis and the nation’s affordability crisis far worse by boosting polluting fossil fuels and rejecting cheaper clean energy solutions,” says Rachel Cleetus, senior policy director for the UCS Climate and Energy program. “By denying the science on human-caused climate change and blocking efforts to limit heat-trapping emissions, the administration is prioritizing massive profits for Big Oil while jeopardizing a livable, secure and economically stable future for the rest of us.”
UCS experts are closely following climate extremes already unfolding, or that could lie ahead, as we enter Danger Season. Links to their analyses and summaries are included below:
Heat: March was the hottest on record for the contiguous U.S. with unprecedented and alarmingly high temperatures across a large swath of the country that would have been nearly impossible without human-caused climate change. The unprecedented hot, dry conditions spurred rapid melt of an already low snowpack across the western U.S., posing risks to water supplies, setting the stage for expanding drought conditions, and a dangerous wildfire season.
Drought: More than half of the country is in some stage of drought, concentrated in the Southeast, High Plains and Western regions of the country. The drought, together with low snowpack, threatens future water supplies. It also imperils agricultural production, jeopardizing the well-being of rural communities and further raising the nation’s food prices already high due to President Trump’s tariffs and the Iran war’s disruption of fertilizer supplies.
Wildfires: The U.S. wildfire season is already off to an above-normal start. Climate change-driven heat and worsening drought conditions are raising risks that hot, dry, windy fire weather will prime the landscape for more intense wildfires.
El Niño: The potential for a rare super El Niño event later this year could alter weather patterns around the world and, combined with fossil fuel-caused climate change, push global temperatures to record-high levels. The disruptive climate pattern could begin developing in the coming months, heating up the eastern Pacific Ocean, with many effects unfolding as early as the fall.
Flooding: Our heating climate increases the likelihood of extreme precipitation because warmer air holds more moisture and raises the risk of flash flooding as seen during last year’s tragic Texas floods.
Hurricanes: NOAA will release its 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook on May 21. An initial forecast from Colorado State University predicts a below-average number of storms due to the developing El Niño, but warns “it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season.”