Tracing Tides

How Major Carbon Producers Drive Sea Level Rise and Climate Injustice

Shaina Sadai, Carly Phillips, Delta Merner

Published Mar 18, 2025

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Key Findings

Nearly half of the increase in present-day average surface temperature can be traced to emissions from the 122 largest fossil fuel producers and cement manufacturers.
Nearly one-third of present-day sea level rise can be traced to those same "Carbon Majors."
We are now all but guaranteed as much as 22 inches of additional sea level rise by 2300.

Major fossil fuel producers have played a large role in driving climate change and increasing global temperatures and sea levels, prompting questions about who bears responsibility.

New research by the Union of Concerned Scientists finds that nearly half of the increase in present-day average surface temperature and one-third of present-day sea level rise can be traced to emissions from the 122 largest fossil fuel producers and cement manufacturers.

This research also shows that due to the delay between heat-trapping emissions and the consequential impacts on ocean temperatures and ice sheets, previous emissions have all but guaranteed as much as 22 inches of additional sea level rise by 2300, regardless of future reductions in climate-warming pollution. These findings underscore the urgency of phasing out fossil fuels, highlight the intergenerational injustice of continuing their use, and can inform discussions about major corporations’ responsibility for current and future climate impacts.

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Citation

Sadai, Shaina, Carly Phillips, and Delta Merner. 2025. Tracing the Tides: How Major Carbon Producers Drive Sea Level Rise and Climate Injustice. Cambridge, MA. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://doi.org/10.47923/2025.15818

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